Saving less

The experts keep saying the economy is doing well. GDP growth is good, and employment is at least keeping up with population growth. Real median income, however, is falling, as is the personal savings rate.



The above graph is from a data set that is available at the St. Louis Federal Reserve website. It shows that from 1960 to the early 1990s, Americans spent roughly 92% of their paycheck; about 8% was left over for savings. Following the economic recession in the early 1980s, the savings rate fell from around 10% to about 7% by the end of the decade. It is often said that we American consumers spent our way into the long prosperity between 1984 and 1990; the declining savings rate illustrates that.

The expansion between 1993 and 2001 was also marked by a declining savings rate, and the savings rate continues to fall through the current recovery from the last recession. From last summer until now, for the first time since the Great Depression, we have actually had a negative savings rate -- we Americans are spending more than we are earning. Clearly, this is not sustainable.

I'd like to point out an interesting anomaly in the chart. In December of 2004, the personal savings rate spiked up to 4.4%. The reason for this was the one-time dividend paid out by Microsoft that amounted to about 10% of the company's market value. This one event added something like $30 billion in dividend income to the U.S. total, which was not offset by increased spending on goods and services. Because distribution of the dividend was highly unequal (Bill Gates got over $1 billion of it), it did not represent any improvement for the vast majority of Americans.

Bush to face impeachment

Maybe. The text of the resolution is up at the Illinois General Assembly website.

It was introduced by Rep. Karen Yarbrough of the Berwyn/Maywood area in the near western suburbs of Chicago. As of Friday, the resolution had two co-sponsors: Rep. Eddie Washington of Waukegan and Rep. Sara Feigenholtz of Chicago's Lakeview neighborhood. As of Tuesday, the bill was sent to the Rules Committee, and 14 more co-sponsors have been added.

According to the Rules of the 109th Congress, Section 603, a state legislature can initiate impeachment proceedings by transmitting charges to the U.S. House of Representatives. Section 604 states: "A direct proposition to impeach is a question of high privilege in the House and at once supersedes business otherwise in order."

Although the Democrats hold the majority in the Illinois Legislature, it's no sure thing that the bill will pass both houses. And if it does and gets sent to Congress, will our lawmakers take it seriously?

Foreign policy with hubris

We have a President who can't get enough of campaigning, especially when his audiences are made up of hand-picked cheerleaders. Yesterday he made an appearance in Irvine, CA, where he talked about his foreign policy. Here is what he said:

I base a lot of my foreign policy decisions on some things I think are true. One is I believe there is an Almighty, and secondly, I believe that one of the great gifts of the Almighty is the desire in everybody's soul, regardless of what you look like or where you live, to be free.

This echoes some themes of Enlightenment philosophers, who were mostly Deists (rather than Christians). They believed that people were naturally endowed with certain universal rights. Whether or not one believes the source of those rights to be some mystical higher power (but not necessarily the Christian God) is of little practical importance; either way, human rights = good. But Bush's invocation of the Almighty suggests more of a "God is on my side" kind of justification for foreign interventions.

I believe liberty is universal.

I agree. The problem is, Bush routinely says or does things that contradict this sentiment. Warrantless surveillance, suspension of habeas corpus for detainees, the nullifying of the McCain anti-torture amendment... If Bush really believed liberty was universal, he would not do these things.

I believe people want to be free, and I know that democracies do not war with each other.

But they do.

And I know that the best way to defeat the enemy, and the best way to defeat their ability to exploit hopelessness and despair is to give people a chance to live in a free society.

Defeat the enemy. A vague, amorphous enemy.

You know, the Iraqis went to the polls last December for the third time in one year. Seems like a decade ago, doesn't it?

If this is as much progress as we can expect in a decade, we're in serious trouble.

Seems like it was an eternity ago, that 12 million people defied terrorists, threats... and said: "We want to be free. We're sick and tired of a society that had been suppressed by a brutal tyrant. We want to go to the polls. We want to be self governing." I wasn't surprised. I was pleased but not surprised. If you believe that liberty exists in the soul of each person on the face of the earth, it shouldn't surprise you that given the chance, people will say: "We want to be free."

But is that what the Iraqis were saying? The electoral process was driven from the outside, and a major segment of the population boycotted one of those elections. Ongoing sectarian strife suggests that the Iraqis are also saying that they want to settle grievances through violence, and not through rule of law. And another message that comes out of those elections is that the U.S. wants to legitimize the Iraqi government, which may be at odds with what the Iraqi people want.

And now the role of the United States is to stand by the courageous Iraqis as their democracy develops. It's not easy work.

Nation building is hard.

Like cream cheese on Wonder Bread

Gnashing one's teeth is less pleasant without some food involved, so I'll provide a food analogy with today's political commentary.

The neocons in the Bush Administration, in PNAC, and elsewhere like to talk about a certain process they call "spreading democracy." To me, it sounds like something that ought to be done with a butter knife. The enthusiasts for spreading democracy appear to ignore the facts surrounding the emergence of democracy in America; when the Revolution began, a stable, cohesive society already existed. There were already democratic institutions in place, such as the separation of powers, which had developed organically over centuries. So if democracy is like cream cheese, American society was like a nice, solid bagel, which could easily support it.

Iraqi society, by contrast, is like Wonder Bread -- especially after we essentially dismantled the state. Try and spread the cream cheese of democracy on it -- the crusty minority separates from the larger spongy white part, and the whole thing smushes and tears apart. It's not pretty.

Central to the neoconservative ideology is that democratic governments, selected by a rational electorate, tend to be easier to deal with in a rational, diplomatic way than non-democratic governments. An assumption is made that a government selected by the people will respect universal human rights. In the case of a U.S. role in establishing this government, the beneficiaries of these newly acquired rights should then feel grateful, improving the image of the U.S. abroad. Furthermore, a society that values human rights ought to respect their neighbors, leading to more harmonious relations among the nations.

If only it were so tidy. Unfortunately, the assumptions made regarding democratically elected governments do not necessarily hold. Often, we see examples of democratic processes where the "wrong" government is selected. Iraq, already mentioned above, is one such case. Not long ago, the Palestinians also selected the "wrong" government -- favoring one that condones terror over the previous corrupt and ineffective one. The government selected by the people, even if it is a rational choice, might represent one faction that has little respect for the rights of others. Meanwhile, U.S. involvement in the process is resented as arrogant, heavy-handed meddling.

Not that democracy is a bad thing, mind you. It just doesn't produce the results advertised by the neocons. For more along these lines, I refer you to an article titled The Dangers of Exporting Democracy by Eric Hobsbawm that was published last year in the Guardian (UK). I should point out that Mr. Hobsbawm, a noted Communist, could be criticized as being an extremist and not worthy of serious consideration. However, in this case, I think he raises some good points.

Google translations: Di gantse megillah

Today I went to Google's Language Tools to translate something. Normally I just use the "Translate" tool, but today my eyes wandered down to the "Use the Google Interface in Your Language" section. Wow. You can set up Google to do anything from Pig Latin to Elmer Fudd to the Swedish Chef. There are also options for legitimate but rarely spoken languages such as Latin, Esperanto, and Yiddish. Here's what the Yiddish page looks like:



I can't vouch for its correctness, but it appears that some of the words, such as web, are borrowed from English. For instance, the text in the pale blue box reads, "Web rezultaten 1-10 fon ahn erch 472,000 fahr..." That's 472,000 hits for the word "Yiddish" spelled out in Hebrew letters. Who knew?

Asian junk food and higher math

One of my coworkers just got back from Taiwan and brought back these little, individually packaged cakes for everyone. I looked closely at the pattern printed on the box, and I recognized it as a fractal -- specifically in the cos/cosh/exponential family. I pointed this out to her and wrote a little program to make a similar design:



The above image was generated using the iterative formula Z(n+1) = cosh(Z(n)). Z is a complex number, and n is an iteration counter. Z(0) is the initial condition, corresponding to the coordinates of a pixel in the image.

Each pixel in the image is colored according to the result of the iterative formula. If you have a calculator with a cosh function (the Windows Calculator utility has one: Hyp+cos), you can see for yourself that no matter what number you put in, when you keep hitting the cosh button, the number in the display keeps getting bigger until you reach numeric overflow. The question is how fast you get there. Points that are more yellow and green in my picture take longer to "escape" than points that are more red.

As for the cake, mmmmm... It had a pineapple filling and very high fat content. You don't need a degree in mathematics to understand this formula: SUGAR + FAT = TASTY.

As long as I'm on the subject of the oddities of Asian food packaging, I should also mention the bag of chips I recently got at my local Asian grocery. They were identified as bean crackers, but without any actual beans, unless you count the peanuts. It's hard to describe, but you can find more information about the product online. Mixed in with the assorted bean chips were dried anchovies, and these were displayed in larger-than-life photographic detail on the outside of the bag, heads and all. With their eyes staring out at me, how could I resist? I was disappointed, though; there weren't nearly as many anchovies as the packaging would lead you to believe.

True and false

Looking for absolute truth? Everything you will find at this link is absolutely true. (If you doubt me, try this other link.)

False and true

Everything you read at this link is a complete lie.

Few and tralse

This statement is false, and some statements are true.

Urban Epicure closed

If there's one constant in this neighborhood, it's change. I took a little walk over to Urban Epicure in Andersonville this afternoon, planning to get some olives and cheeses. I had recommended it in a previous entry, but I guess not enough people read my blog for it to have any significant impact on business, because it is now out of business. So no fancy cheeses for me today.